Questions
Birthdays
Use Poisson approximations to investigate the following types of coincidences. The usual assumptions of the birthday problem apply, such as that there are 365 days in a year, with all days equally likely.
How many people are needed to have a 50% chance that at least one of them has the same birthday as you?
Let be the number of people there are other than you. Create an indicator variable for each of the people as to whether they have the same birthday as you. Then, and thus . Therefore, we can model this as a and so we just need to calculate
It turns out that .
How many people are needed to have a 50% chance that there are two people who not only were born on the same day, but also were born at the same hour (e.g., two people born between 2 pm and 3 pm are considered to have been born at the same hour).
This is the birthday problem but with types instead of just 365. Creating an indicator r.v. for whether each pair of people have the same birthday, we get that the number of pairs of people with the same birthday is distributed approximately and thus the probability of at least people having the same birthday is approximately:
Setting it equal to gives us .
Uniform
Let $U \sim Unif(-1,1).$ Note that the PDF of $U$ is $f(x) = \frac{1}{2}$.
Compute
because the distribution is symmetric about 0.
Compute
We need to calculate for the variance, so we have:
Therefore,
Compute
We use LOTUS (Law of the Unconscious Statistician) as before.
Find the CDF of .
We can describe the CDF of using the CDF of .
Find the PDF of .
We take the derivative of the CDF of to obtain the PDF .
Is a uniform distribution?
The PDF of is . This is not a uniform distribution. This also shows that is not uniform anymore for any .
Normal
Let with CDF . The PDF of is the function given by:
with a support of .
Find expressions for as integrals in two different ways one based on the PDF of and the other based on the PDF of .
Let so By LOTUS
where is the PDF of and is as above.
Find .
By linearity, this is . The second term is 0 and the first term is 1 since The third term is since by universality of the Uniform, . Thus, the value is .
Find the CDF of in terms of ; do not find the PDF of .
For the CDF of is 0. For the CDF of is
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